In business, the 'black swan' is a form of disruption, which is usually least expected by a firm. Again, 'ugly duckling' refers to the day to day disruptions, which are always expected, and the firm remains prepared for it, hence, the coining of the term. Companies don't pay attention to these disruptions with the expectation that they will remain small and never grow up to be as big and disruptive as the 'black swan'. Majority of the companies have risk management departments who focus on regulations and the traditional risks, completely ignoring the extreme ('black swan') cases. The 'black swan' has the capability of even surpassing the traditional data analytics procedures. Hence, comes into the picture, big data and advanced analytics, which gathers newer insights even about the most uncommon and worst case scenarios that may happen in the near future. Armed with information, much beforehand, the companies can make themselves immune, even to the worst of the situations. Predictive analytics thus plays a major role in recognizing 'black swan' events, often from the data of past 'black swan' episodes. Read more at:
http://www.teradatamagazine.com/v15n02/Features/Ugly-Duckling-or-Black-Swan/